Windows 11 stages a comeback – still miles behind older sibling

Microsoft appears to be starting the year with a rebound in Windows 11 adoption as the latest figures show the operating system reversing its recent months’ long declines.

The gap between Microsoft’s two operating systems has closed, according to Statcounter: Windows 11’s market share for January stands at 36.6 percent, up from 34.12 percent the previous month. Windows 10 has fallen to 60.37 percent, down from 62.7 percent in December.

As 2024 drew to a close Windows 10 gained market share at the expense of Windows 11. Considering the few short months that remain before Microsoft ends support for Windows 10 – October 14, 2025, is the end of support for most versions – narrowing the gap will be a relief for the OS team.

During last week’s investor call, Microsoft CFO Amy Hood noted that revenue from the company’s Windows OEM and Devices unit had increased by 4 percent year-on-year, “driven by commercial inventory builds in advance of Windows 10 end of support.”

Hood’s figures align with last year’s projections from Taiwan-based market watcher TrendForce, which said it expected shipments to grow by 4.9 percent in 2025 as the commercial market prepares for the impending end of support for Windows 10.

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Despite the market shift, AI PCs are unlikely to be the main driver. CEO Satya Nadella talked up the technology during Microsoft’s earnings call, saying: “15 percent of premium-priced laptops in the US this holiday were Copilot+ PCs.”

He added: “We expect the majority of the PCs sold in the next several years to be Copilot+ PCs.” Nadella is probably correct – analysts reckon that by 2026, it’ll be difficult to buy a PC without AI silicon.

Many factors have held users back from adopting Windows 11, not least the hardware requirements that presented such a headache when the OS was released in 2021. However, PCs have been replaced in the intervening years as part of a regular replacement cycle. Some will have been downgraded to Windows 10 for corporate standardization but could be upgraded once admins give the go-ahead.

Microsoft will be hoping that this month’s market share direction will turn into dominance for Windows 11 by the time Windows 10 comes to the end of the line. ®