Mr Viral
There will always be some “Thomas amnesiacs” on the raisossocios who will say that this kind of thing never happens, that we’re writing about nothing, that it’s all blah, blah, blah.
Yet, as recently as last year, the Habs moved up five spots to give themselves the opportunity to draft Michael Hage in the 21st round, a player the team’s scouts really liked.
To do this, in addition to the 26th pick, Kent Hughes also had to give up picks #57 and #198, in the second and seventh rounds.
Was it a fair deal for the Kings and the Canadiens?
Absolutely. At least, according to the PuckPedia “sausage machine”!
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com)
According to the PuckPedia Perri Pick Value Calculator, the total value of the picks involved was just shy of “18” for both organizations.
So, with these two picks at 16th and 17th and, in total, twelve picks in 2025, including several in the2nd,3rd and4th rounds, it’s very tempting to think that the Habs will try again this year to move up in the draft.
At the same time, it would probably bring management and the recruiting team closer to their initial plans, where everyone was anticipating a team in the mix rather than a team in the playoffs..
And, if you still think that advancing into the top-15 is very difficult, if not almost impossible, let’s remember that, also last year, the Wild managed to trade with the Flyers from #13 to #12 in order to get their hands on Zeev Buium, one of my darlings in 2024.
All the Wild had to do was add a third-round pick to complete the deal and make it “fair”… even though we all know Brière should never have turned his nose up at Buium! (wink!)
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com)
Kent Hughes-decidedly a regular-had also pulled off the trick in 2022, trading Alexander Romanov and a 4th-round pick (#98) for the 13th overall pick, which he immediately passed on to the Hawks along with pick #66 in return for Kirby Dach, 3rd overall in 2019…
So, moving up in the first round, even into the top-15, is a fairly regular occurrence.
It’s with the Kraken at #8 that the action is likely to begin in 2025…
Let’s get one thing straight at the outset: we can’t see how or why a club with a top-seven pick in 2025 would agree to trade with the Canadiens.
Anyone lucky enough to draft Schaefer, Misa, Frondell, Desnoyers, Martone, Hagens or even Jake O’Brien won’t want to go down in the draft unless they’re offered the moon in return.
And no, picks #16 and #17 still wouldn’t be the Moon, even if, mathematically, the “sausage machine” works very well from the 6thrank . In any case, Cam Neely and the Bruins would never make such a deal with Montreal, especially if a certain Caleb Desnoyers were on the line…
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com)
From where we’re sitting, it’s the 8th and upwards that general managers’ ears could be perking up a lot more, as there’s not as much of a consensus on which players should still be available.
(Credit: Tankathon)
In theory, with an attractive offer, Seattle, Buffalo, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, New York (Rangers), Detroit, Columbus and Vancouver could all benefit from going a little lower in the draft to secure a few extra picks.
Many of these clubs haven’t had many first-round picks in recent years and/or don’t have a very good bank of prospects, and might be tempted to build or rebuild with specific profiles in mind.
Let’s not forget that, no matter what the apostles of the mythical “best player available” may say, in seeking the optimal scenario for them more often than not , managers very rarely ignore their organizational needs.
Incidentally, if the Canadiens try to move up in the draft, it will almost certainly be to get their hands on a talented prospect who fills an organizational need, as was the case with Hage last year, and in the same spirit that Slafkovsky, Reinbacher and Demidov have also been drafted since 2022.
In 2025, Hughes and Gorton could very well target a center-forward with good size, a feisty winger or a strong, talented defenseman.
If these two, backed by their scouts, feel that one of the players still available is worth sacrificing quality picks or prospects to acquire, it’s at No. 8 that the Habs could be sure to take the wind out of the sails of the entire completion by submitting an offer that would suit the Kraken.
We won’t go through all the imaginable scenarios, but a simple, straightforward and “aggressive” trade like this one, in which Hughes offers picks #16, #17 and #82, while asking the Kraken for pick #38, might have a chance of tempting Seattle.
All it takes is for Ron Francis and Jason Botterill’s scouting team to see not such a big difference between the value of the pick available at #8 and those they have at #16 and #17 on their list, and it becomes possible.
In any case, in terms of pick value, it could be a pretty good match.
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com)
For the Kraken, this would give them an impressive run of four consecutive drafts with two first-round picks between 2024 and 2027.
Not a bad way to raise an organization’s average talent level!
It’s also worth noting that the Kraken has no 3rd-round pick this year. Pick # 82 would be a welcome addition.
Of course, Seattle is likely to receive a ton of other offers, especially if a member of the “consensual top-7” were to “slip”, but there’s no doubt that the Habs are one of the best-placed teams to dance with Botterill and friends.
The Habs would obviously give a lot by giving up picks #16 and #17, but they’d also get a lot if they added pick #38 to #8, just ahead of the #41 and #49 selections they already own…
That said, Habs thinkers might also doubt that pick #8 is that much better than those who should still be available in the 16th and 17th echelons, and then prefer other options, including staying very quiet… or “seasoned player” type options like the ones we’ve been analyzing lately.
In short, these are exactly the kinds of things that were undoubtedly discussed this week in Brossard and will continue to be studied in the coming weeks…
A deal with Columbus to move up two places?
In our view, there are also two other, perhaps slightly more “realistic” scenarios involving the Columbus Blue Jackets, who currently hold the 14th and 20th spots in 2025.
In the first scenario, Columbus, currently without a second-round pick, would acquire pick #49 in addition to pick #16 (Flames) belonging to the Habs.
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com)
As for the Habs and their scouts, in addition to moving up two spots to secure a player they feel is superior, they would keep pick #17 and acquire a fourth 3rd-round pick, making it possible to raid the talent still available in the 77th, 79th, 81st and 82nd rounds.
Want some stingers? Here you go!
(Screenshot: Tankathon.com )
But another scenario, perhaps even more tempting for the Jackets, would be the following:
(Screenshot: PuckPedia.com )
In this scenario, Hughes and Gorton would really have to be convinced that the player available atNo . 14 is worth the money. They’d also have to gamble that the player or players they’d like to select at No. 20 are still available.
This could be a nice scenario if you want to go with a “safer” pick at No. 14 and a more “swing for the fences” pick at No. 20.
What targets for the Habs?
Perhaps it’s still a little too early to venture a guess as to who outside the famous “top-7” might be a worthwhile target for the Habs if they manage to climb between 8th and 15th.
But why not take a chance?
Yolo!
Personally, even if there are still small question marks in both cases – a shortened season for giant-sized right-handed defenseman Radim Mrtka and an Achilles tendon laceration for dynamic forward Carter Bear – if the Habs try to move up to 8th, I’d still like both players. … In Bear’s case, there’s nothing too worrisome, according to the scouts Bob McKenzie polled.
However, I would still have major reservations about Roger McQueen because of his back problems, which were still not fully resolved at last count. After his long-awaited return to action, the big right-handed center wasn’t even able to play all of Brandon’s playoff games… So it’s the doctors of the teams interested in selecting him who will “make” the decision in his case, yes, including those of the Habs if he slips to 16th or 17th. At the moment, he’s even a no-draft choice for some scouts polled by McKenzie…
On the other hand, winger Justin Carbonneau could be a nice target for the Habs around 14th, perhaps even to the point of having to move up a few levels to secure his services. We know that the Habs saw him play a lot with the Armada this winter and spring. On the surface, there aren’t many question marks about him: good scorer, good hands, strong, fast, hard-working, pretty good feel for the game. It remains to be seen whether team management likes his personality. Some Québécois are “made” to play in Montreal, others less so… Something to keep an eye on.
As for the rest, Kashawn Aitcheson is certainly “spectacular”. And if, for better or worse, we want to add a bit of “ f… you attitude ” to the organization, he certainly ticks that box, as does Brady Martin, who doesn’t let it get to him on the ice… If they’re available at 16th and 17th, they’d tempt me quite a bit more than Lynden Lakovic and Logan Hensler, let’s say…
But then again, the Habs might have to move up to get one of them. One thing’s for sure, Martin and Aitcheson are two players to be analyzed more closely in the coming weeks. The 2025 series has shown once again that you can’t underestimate trickery if you want to dance long into the spring…
Finally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see left-handed defenseman Jackson Smith and right-handed winger Victor Eklund drafted a little higher than many sources are currently telling us, including Bob McKenzie’s latest “pre-lottery” list.
(Screenshot: TSN.CA)
At the very least, I don’t see the Habs stretching out their arms for these two players who, despite their undoubted talent, don’t correspond to salient organizational needs and therefore wouldn’t be optimal choices. That said, they wouldn’t be bad picks at rows 16 and 17…
In short, as RBO used to say, “à suirrrrrrrrrrrrre !”
