Golden Globes 2025: See Our Predictions for Every Winner

It is, of course, always tough to predict the famously erratic Golden Globes—particularly now, two years into the ceremony’s rebuilding era, when its tastes may have shifted away from the eccentric and more toward the mainstream. Yet here is Awards Insider anyway, revealing our Golden Globes predictions for the show set to unfold on January 5, 2025.

Hosted by roast master Nikki Glaser, the telecast is almost certain to be more entertaining than last year’s shambolic affair—and without the dominant forces of a drama like Oppenheimer and a comedy like Barbie ruling the awards circuit this year, it’s very possible that the Globes elect to award projects and performers we don’t see coming. The snubs and surprises of this year’s nominations may hint at what’s to come, as could other precursors. But really, the Globes tend to be in a class by themselves. Peruse the 2025 Golden Globe nominations, then look below to see who Vanity Fair’s experts think will win in every single category.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or ComedyAnora
Challengers
PREDICTED WINNER: Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked

If a musical is nominated, it will often win this category (like West Side Story in 2021, La La Land in 2016, and Les Misérables in 2012). That means Wicked has a good chance here as a crowd-pleaser with commercial success. The past two years the Globes voters have gone for more critically acclaimed, auteur-driven choices like Poor Things and The Banshees of Inisherin, so there’s also a chance Palme d’Or winner Anora gets the win. That said, Jacques Audiard’s crime musical earned the most nominations of any film this year, with 10—so we know that the Globes voters like it very much, and it just so happens to be a musical that was also directed by a revered international auteur. —Rebecca Ford

Best Motion Picture, DramaPREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
September 5

As you’ll hear a lot in this post, the Globes are harder to predict than ever, given their newly revamped (and expanded) voting body. But some things we do know about this group: They lean a little more highbrow and international, judging by their embrace of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest last year, and they remain keenly aware of their role as a nationally broadcast Oscar precursor. Which is to say: If Globes voters really like a film or performance that’s legitimately in the conversation, they’ll happily stack the votes in that direction.

Of this field, The Brutalist is both the most nominated movie and the contender most likely to benefit from the Globes’ rebrand. This independently made, ambitiously crafted immigrant tale has already won a major award across the Atlantic, at the Venice Film Festival, and has found more critical admirers than its toughest competition, Conclave. I believe that points to a win for the A24 epic, though if these voters retreat toward more familiar territory, a starry, pulpy papal thriller won’t be easy to resist. —David Canfield

Best Motion Picture, AnimatedFlow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot

The rapturous reception Universal’s animated fable received at the Toronto Film Festival this year bodes well for its awards chances, even if Inside Out 2 made more money (it’s the top grossing film of 2024 both domestically and worldwide, by a healthy margin) and Flow is more international. And warm voice work from stars like Lupita Nyong’o and Pedro Pascal give it an extra celebrity sheen, which never hurts. —Hillary Busis

Motion Picture, Non-English LanguageAll We Imagine as Light
PREDICTED WINNER: Emilia Pérez
The Girl With the Needle
I’m Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Vermiglio

We keep going back and forth on this one. While conventional wisdom would suggest that Emilia Pérez’s 10 Globe nominations mean it’s a lock in this category, it also has a distinct chance of winning in best musical or comedy—so would the voters really double up like that? If they want to spread the wealth, we think India’s All We Imagine as Light or Brazil’s I’m Still Here would likely win this category. But then again, a non-English-language movie has never won in the Globes’ musical-comedy category before (if you don’t count Vicky Cristina Barcelona and The Artist), so maybe this is where Emilia Pérez prevails. That’s what we’re predicting now, but won’t be too surprised if something else takes it. —Richard Lawson

Cinematic and Box Office AchievementAlien: Romulus
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
PREDICTED WINNER: Wicked
The Wild Robot

Last year, this new category went to Barbie, a crowd-pleasing commercial success that also had legitimate Oscar possibilities. We expect the same thing to happen this year for Wicked. There are plenty of parallels between the films and their campaigns, including the major box office hauls of each and the worldwide, monthslong publicity campaigns that helped the films get those box office tallies (do we all remember the Wicked cast showing up at the Olympics over the summer?). This feels like an easy win for Wicked as a show of support for the film that might not win elsewhere. —R.F.

Male Actor, Motion Picture, DramaPREDICTED WINNER: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

The Oscars best-actor race feels to me like a dead heat between Brody and Chalamet, both of whom have earned wide critical acclaim and will likely be backed by best-picture noms for their respective movies. At the Globes, though, we know The Brutalist is particularly strong, and I’m not sure how well a broadly accessible music biopic will play to this international group versus the now-defunct HFPA. All of that points to a win for Brody. But Chalamet’s ascent in this category could not be more perfectly timed for a nationally televised upset, and if these voters have in mind who might provide the bigger stage moment, Chalamet gets the edge. Consider this category the first of many coin flips this season. —D.C.

Female Actor, Motion Picture, DramaPamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Angelina Jolie, Maria
PREDICTED WINNER: Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Kate Winslet, Lee

We’re giving the edge to Kidman by the slimmest of margins. She’s had a great year, what with TV successes and a glowing AFI tribute, and she already won the best-actress prize at Venice for her razor sharp turn in Babygirl. Kidman also has the benefit of the Globes’ recently expanded voting pool, which would probably favor her over Jolie or Winslet. The best shot to beat Kidman might be Torres, whose movie is certainly lower profile than that of her competitors, but has been quickly gaining momentum in recent weeks. This year could be an echo of 2017, when non-American Isabelle Huppert won in this category for Elle, while the future Oscar winner, Emma Stone, won in comedy-musical. Torres could benefit from that split (several of the perceived Oscar front-runners are in comedy-musical this year), making her one of a very small handful of actresses to win for a non-English movie. Still, we’re slightly leaning toward Kidman, so haloed in glory in 2024. —R.L.

Best Director, Motion PictureJacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

It was very exciting to see the Globes make some unexpected choices in their nominations for this category by including Coralie Fargeat and Payal Kapadia. Indeed, this group of nominees is mostly international filmmakers, which reflects this group’s taste. But in the end, I think they’re going to give the award to American filmmaker Brady Corbet, who has been picking up a slew of nominations and wins in the weeks leading up to the Globes. His more than three-hour epic earned the Silver Lion in Venice, and one of its strongest narratives has been the directorial effort from Corbet. —R.F.

Male Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or ComedyJesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Glen Powell, Hit Man
PREDICTED WINNER: Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

When it comes to potential Oscar nominations, even the likeliest players in this group—Eisenberg, Grant, and Stan—feel like long shots (though Stan has a better shot with the Oscar for The Apprentice, Globe-nominated on the drama side). I assume this race will come down to that trio, unless we get a vintage Globes pick in Powell, the hot A-lister of the group.

Though neither Heretic nor A Different Man are nominated anywhere else, Grant’s movie is more popular, and his performance has been more widely recognized (it’s also Critics Choice–nominated). Stan’s year, meanwhile, has been more broadly impressive, as his two Globe nods this year affirm. These voters surely know he’s about chanceless in the stacked drama-actor category, so this would be the place to reward him. My guess is that, given the relative thinness of this field, that’s enough. But Eisenberg could also emerge as a default choice, given that he’s repping the only best-picture nominee of the six. —D.C.

Female Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or ComedyAmy Adams, Nightbitch
PREDICTED WINNER: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Zendaya, Challengers

Among the toughest categories to call this year, this one could quite possibly contain the future Oscar winner. While at least four of these competitors have strong narratives that would suggest a win, we’re banking on Erivo big-belting in a smash hit to win the voters’ favor. She’s got stiff competition in Madison, and maybe even Moore. But the combination of powerful singing (and acting!) and zeitgeist success has us thinking that Erivo is slightly ahead of the pack. —R.L.

Female Actor, Supporting Role, Motion PictureSelena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
PREDICTED WINNER: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Could this voting body be wooed by the mega-wattage of the two pop stars who appear on this list? It’s always possible. But I think they’ll give the category to Emilia Pérez’s other star, Zoe Saldaña. Her role is the most significant of any of these performances (as in, she’s in the movie a lot), and she is firing on all cylinders, dancing, singing, and also acting as the audience’s guide through the film. She’s been a major blockbuster star for decades, and now she’ll be rewarded for showing voters a totally different side of her. —R.F.

Male Actor, Supporting Role, Motion PictureYura Borisov, Anora
PREDICTED WINNER: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

In their first iteration last year, the new Globes seemed less willing to deliver a spoiler than in the boozy ceremony’s previous, ever-chaotic era. Every obvious front-runner, from Da’Vine Joy Randolph to Robert Downey Jr. to Christopher Nolan, won without complication. This year feels a lot less certain in most movie categories, giving voters more room to play—except in this race. Culkin has been totally dominant on the precursor awards circuit, and is the obvious choice until a major group proves otherwise. That could certainly be the Globes—if they really love The Brutalist, Pearce is right there, while Culkin’s Succession sibling Strong would make for an especially amusing upset—but as of now, don’t count on it. Culkin is ahead, and there’s little reason to think the Globes will change that. —D.C.

Best Screenplay, Motion PictureJacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
PREDICTED WINNER: Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Peter Straughan, Conclave

It’s tempting to look at Conclave and say, well, surely that’s exactly the kind of smart, upscale mainstream writing the awards body that has given multiple prizes to Aaron Sorkin would reward this year. But then again, there’s Anora, so beloved from Cannes on, a hit among that festival’s international cohort (which surely has some overlap with Globes voters) and presumably the newer bloc that represents a younger, more diverse demographic. We say Anora comes out on top, with Conclave and A Real Pain as the potential upsets. —R.L.

Best Original Score, Motion PictureVolker Bertelmann, Conclave
Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot
PREDICTED WINNER: Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers
Hans Zimmer, Dune: Part Two

As the most-nominated film at the Globes this year, and a musical to boot, this award is almost certainly Emilia Pérez’s to lose—though it’s got very strong competition, particularly from the blaring synth of Challengers and the delightfully on-topic melodrama of Conclave. If Emilia doesn’t win, that could spell trouble ahead for Netflix’s great 2025 awards hope. —H.B.

Best Original Song, Motion Picture“Beautiful That Way,” The Last Showgirl, Music & Lyrics by: Andrew Wyatt, Miley Cyrus, and Lykke Zachrisson
“Compress/Repress,” Challengers, Music & Lyrics by: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Luca Guadagnino
PREDICTED WINNER: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez, Music & Lyrics by: Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard
“Forbidden Road,” Better Man, Music & Lyrics by: Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler, and Sacha Skarbek
“Kiss the Sky,” The Wild Robot, Music & Lyrics by: Delacey, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack, and Ali Tamposi
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez, Music & Lyrics by: Clément Ducol and Camille

This is the climactic number of Audiard’s musical, in which Saldaña excoriates the hypocritical, wealthy criminals who have signed on to support her employer’s charity, which works to find the missing victims of drug traffickers. (There is a lot going on in Emilia Pérez.) It’s fiery and sold exceptionally well by Saldaña, who will hopefully get a chance to perform the same number at the Oscars in a few weeks. —H.B.

Best TV Series, DramaThe Day of the Jackal
The Diplomat
Mr. & Mrs. Smith
PREDICTED WINNER: Shōgun
Slow Horses
Squid Game

The Globes voters haven’t always aligned with the Emmys voters in this category. They never cared for Game of Thrones the way Emmys voters did, and instead gave their award to surprising choices like The Affair, Mr. Robot, and The Handmaid’s Tale. But in the past they’ve bestowed the award on Succession and The Crown, just as the Emmys did. So while it would be fun to see the Globes go in a different direction with one of their more surprising nominees, we’re expecting FX’s megahit Shōgun to take the prize here just as it did at the last Emmys ceremony. —R.F.

Best TV Series, Musical or ComedyAbbott Elementary
The Bear
The Gentlemen
PREDICTED WINNER: Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building

We’re coming off a winter season in which every big awards show gave its top series prizes to the same three shows: Succession, Beef, and The Bear. Are we in for a repeat with Emmy champs Shōgun, Baby Reindeer, and Hacks? Very possibly. Only the latter feels vulnerable, specifically at the Globes—because it’s already won this award. When it comes to TV, Globes voters prefer to move on quickly. The Bear may be too polarizing to repeat, though, and it’s not clear to what degree massive viewership for Nobody Wants This can translate into awards success. So Hacks remains, for now, the clear favorite. —D.C.

Best TV Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for TelevisionPREDICTED WINNER: Baby Reindeer
Disclaimer
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
The Penguin
Ripley
True Detective: Night Country

While it does feel like it came out a million years ago, Baby Reindeer likely still has the awards momentum to prevail here, having done the same at the Emmys in September. There’s just no other show on this list that can really compete with Reindeer’s mix of style and social messaging. If we had to name a rival, it would probably be Ripley, whose old-school Euro trappings might appeal to enough Globes members. But this really is Baby Reindeer’s to lose. —R.L.

Male Actor, TV Series, DramaDonald Glover, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal
PREDICTED WINNER: Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun
Billy Bob Thornton, Landman

There’s not really much competition at the Globes for Shōgun, unless Slow Horses pulls off an incredible upset. Expect Sanada to win a Globe to pair with the Emmy he picked up in September; once the SAGs hit in February, he’ll probably get a third statuette to match. On second thought, maybe he should go ahead and get a whole new bookcase. —H.B.

Female Actor, TV Series, DramaKathy Bates, Matlock
Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
Maya Erskine, Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Keira Knightley, Black Doves
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
PREDICTED WINNER: Anna Sawai, Shōgun

Though it would be very Globes-y for the show to give this one to Knightley or even Erskine—this ceremony historically has loved to zig on behalf of cool new TV shows; just ask Michaela Jaé Rodriguez or Lena Dunham—Sawai seems pretty undeniable, like the rest of her Shōgun colleagues. Especially since, spoiler alert, this is the only time she can be nominated in this category for playing this character. —H.B.

Female Actor, TV Series, Musical or ComedyKristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along
PREDICTED WINNER: Jean Smart, Hacks

It’s a tough competition this year with a lot of strong contenders. Ayo Edebiri is the reigning champ in this category, and Quinta Brunson and Jean Smart have also previously won. The third season of The Bear was not met with as warm a reception as the first two seasons, but it still got the most nominations of any series. In contrast, Hacks had its best season yet, so we’re going to guess that Smart gets another win this time around. —R.F.

Male Actor, TV Series, Musical or ComedyPREDICTED WINNER: Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Here’s the obvious place to reward Nobody Wants This. Brody was the hot rabbi of millions of viewers’ dreams, and just so happened to give a moving, charming performance in the process. The biggest—and I’d argue only—competition he faces is Jeremy Allen White, undefeated through two seasons of The Bear and now up for a hat trick. I suspect White’s streak will make the choice easier for voters eager to honor something fresh. —D.C.

Female Actor, Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for TelevisionCate Blanchett, Disclaimer
PREDICTED WINNER: Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Sofía Vergara, Griselda
Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans
Kate Winslet, The Regime

The Globes go back and forth in this category. Sometimes they give it to the older pro (Nicole Kidman, Patricia Arquette), sometimes to the relative acting newbie they want to claim as their own (Anya Taylor-Joy, Lady Gaga, Ali Wong). If they go the former route, Foster will win. If they opt for a slightly fresher choice, Milioti will take it, though Milioti’s chances are somewhat complicated by the fact that some voters might turn their noses up at a comic-book series. So we’ll give the slight advantage to Foster, beloved by the Globes and riding high on a career resurgence. —R.L.

Male Actor, Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for TelevisionColin Farrell, The Penguin
PREDICTED WINNER: Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer
Kevin Kline, Disclaimer
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Ewan McGregor, A Gentleman in Moscow
Andrew Scott, Ripley

As the creative engine behind Netflix’s buzziest 2024 series, Gadd is well positioned to follow his three 2024 Emmy Awards with another win at the Globes. Though the ceremony does have a well-documented love for Colin Farrell—he’s been nominated four times and won twice so far, including just a few years ago for The Banshees of Inisherin—so it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for the Irishman to beat the Scot. —H.B.

Female Actor, Supporting Role, TVLiza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Dakota Fanning, Ripley
PREDICTED WINNER: Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country

Because the Globes weirdly combine all TV categories for supporting actress, we’re seeing an unusual group here that has limited series, dramas, and comedies all mashed together. The past few years have had very obvious winners based on their scene-stealing performances, including The White Lotus’s Jennifer Coolidge and Sarah Snook in Succession. Jessica Gunning gave a similarly undeniable performance in Baby Reindeer, which already earned her an Emmy, so we expect her to win here as well. —R.F.

Male Actor, Supporting Role, TVPREDICTED WINNER: Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun
Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Diego Luna, La Máquina
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Moss-Bachrach has never won the Globe despite the two Emmys to his name for The Bear, so shouldn’t be counted out, and there’s plenty of other worthy work here that the Emmys haven’t (yet) touched: Ford, a standout in Shrinking’s second season; Bardem, effectively vile in Monsters; Luna, a wiry delight in La Máquina. But the front-runner may be the man who just missed out on the drama Emmy this past fall, with the Globes primed to correct that by handing Asano his first big acting award for stealing every one of his Shōgun scenes. Yabushige deserves it. —D.C.

Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy, TVJamie Foxx, Jamie Foxx: What Had Happened Was
Nikki Glaser, Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die
Seth Meyers, Seth Meyers: Dad Man Walking
Adam Sandler, Adam Sandler: Love You
PREDICTED WINNER: Ali Wong, Ali Wong: Single Lady
Ramy Youssef, Ramy Youssef: More Feelings

The winner of this award last January, in the category’s inaugural year, was Ricky Gervais, which could say something about the Globes’ comedy sensibilities. But while none of these nominees are as brave and iconoclastic as The Office’s creator, Globes host Nikki Glaser does have a similar bite—and wouldn’t it be fun to watch her accept an award while emceeing the show? That said, the likelier winner here may be Wong, a two-time Emmy winner as well as a Globe winner just last year for Beef—if only because we all want to see her thank Bill Hader from the stage. —H.B.

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