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Japan rice crisis: Thailand spots exports opportunity on back of bumper production

Japan rice crisis: Thailand spots exports opportunity on back of bumper production

Rice prices in Japan have rocketed in the past year. Image: Getty/simonkr

(Getty Images)

Thai trade officials are hoping to cash in on Japan’s rice supply challenges and subsequent price hikes that have hit consumers hard.Last month the Japanese agriculture department unveiled a plan to release 210,000 tonnes of rice from government stockpiles that is usually used for emergency cases if crops fail.

The government began auctioning the stockpiles last week, with its impact remaining to be seen. It put 150,000 tonnes up for bidding and subsequent sales will be assessed based on supply conditions.

The policy was introduced after rice prices hit record highs in January, with the key commodity trading 80% higher than 12 months ago.

On paper, the price rises appear strange because Japanese officials reported that almost 6.8 million tonnes were harvested in 2024, around 200,000 tonnes higher than the year before.

However, a considerable amount appears to have simply disappeared from the market, with industry players forecasting that the amount destined for the market actually dropped by 200,000.

One theory is that speculators has increased their purchases and withheld them from sales as they expected prices to rise further.

While Japanese consumers, food manufacturers and restaurants have been hit hard by the shortfalls, other Asian countries have been quick to spot an opportunity.

At the recent FoodEx Japan event in Tokyo, Thailand’s Department of Foreign Trade (DFT) was promoting promote rice exports to the country.

Thailand already exports approximately 300,000 tonnes of rice to Japan each year, accounting for around 43% of its import share.

However, with ongoing concerns around the long-term viability and efficiency of the Japanese rice sector, Thai officials see considerable scope for this to increase.

It comes after a strong 2024 for Thailand’s rice exports, which hit 10 million tonnes, boosted by demand from Indonesia, the Philippines, as well as Japan. This was up from around 8 million tonnes in 2023.

In addition to rice, Thai officials were also keen to stress that food exports to Japan as a whole are thriving.

At last year’s FoodEx Japan event, Thai exhibitors walked away with orders totalling 2.458 billion baht (US$700,000), including 5,000 tonnes of bananas and 4,000 tonnes of mangosteen.

Trade officials have also been promoting the ‘One Tambon, One Product’ items in Tokyo, as part of the government’s efforts to tap Thailand’s cultural assets into economic gains for the population. Japan is Thailand’s third biggest export market, and grew by around 2 per cent in 2024.

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