Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Updated Picks Post-Shortlists, Pre-New Year’s Day

Logo text

A note from Scott: As 2024 comes to a close, things may appear to be quiet in the business, but this is merely the calm before a very large storm.

New Year’s Day is on Wednesday. Exactly a week after that, on Jan. 8, Oscar nomination voting will begin (it runs through Jan. 12). And in between those two dates, the Palm Springs International Film Festival will hold its awards gala in the desert (Jan. 3), the Golden Globe Awards ceremony will take place in L.A. (Jan. 5), and the National Board of Review will hand out its prizes in New York (Jan. 7).

This is all hot on the heels of the Academy revealing its shortlists for 10 categories (Netflix’s Emilia Pérez scored the most mentions with six) and the subsequent disqualification of one of the shortlisted original songs, “Forbidden Road” from Paramount’s Better Man; nominations announcements from the Annie Awards (Universal’s The Wild Robot led the field) and the Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards (nobody received more noms than Emilia Pérez’s composing/songwriting team); and strong box office showings over the Christmas break from Focus’ Nosferatu, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown and, in very limited release, A24’s The Brutalist.

There are just 62 days remaining until the 97th Oscars. Buckle up!

PS: Be sure to also check out some fun items that I’ve posted since the last forecast: this Oscar season’s THR Actor Roundtable; episodes of my Awards Chatter podcast with Jude Law, lead actor of Vertical’s The Order, and with Chris Columbus, a producer of Nosferatu producer (and director of the first two Home Alone films, Mrs. Doubtfire and the first two Harry Potter fims); and, unrelated to awards, my profile of the rollercoaster life of the former child actress who played Zuzu Bailey, George’s daughter, in the 1946 Christmas classic It’s a Wonderful Life.

Please remember: You can bookmark this URL and return to it at any time to see my latest picks — I intend to update it once a week, usually on Mondays. Think of me like a meteorologist — my aim is to correctly predict what will happen, not to advocate for what I think should happen. My picks are arrived at by screening films, consulting with voters, analyzing campaigns and studying the results of past seasons. I do not rank things that I have not seen, because doing so is just silly. And now for my current forecast…

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

Best International Feature

Best Documentary Feature

Best Animated Feature

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Original Score

Best Original Song

Best Production Design

Best Sound

Best Visual Effects

Archived forecasts

• Sept. 6, 2024
• Sept. 17, 2024
• Sept. 30, 2024
• Oct. 17, 2024
• Oct. 22, 2024
• Oct. 29, 2024
• Nov. 7, 2024
• Nov. 14, 2024
• Dec. 4, 2024
• Dec. 9, 2024

THR Newsletters

Report