Prediction Markets Turn Tragic Conflict Into Casino

As the war in Ukraine continues, prediction markets have begun to profit from the suffering.

Prediction markets are offering people the opportunity to make bets on how territories will shift, when ceasefires might be announced, and even if things will go nuclear.

The pools of these bets have become worth millions.

Prediction markets are undermining the conflict and the Ukrainians fight for survival, by instead having people focus on whether certain cities will fall.

In doing this, they might lead people into hoping for it to happen so they can profit from a bet they might have placed.

Whereby something like a possible missile strike becomes an opportunity for profit and not a tragedy.

War provides volatility to these markets, which is how they prosper.

The chance that the information being provided to people could be tampered with in order to make a quick buck has raised moral questions about the whole situation.

Betting on a War

For most Ukrainians, their day-to-day consists of constant bombing and fighting in trenches.

While this has been happening for the past four years, recently, a prediction market has started allowing bets to be made on the war.

The civic activist has made the argument that for some of those not living in Ukraine, the conflict has become something of a “gambling game”.

One of those prediction markets is Polymarket. By utilizing their affiliate Polyglobe, a real-time data visualization tool for gambling, they have enabled people to place more specific bets.

Even before this, Polymarket allowed for bets to be made on things like the conditions that would lead to the Pope’s passing, a possible nuclear doomsday in 2025, and even on things concerning the war in Gaza.

Many risks are becoming more apparent as time goes on, such as the possibilities of manipulation, false data, insider access, and, as the Kyivpost put it, “a growing ecosystem where real human suffering becomes simply another asset class.”

Changes without Permission

By using the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) frontline map Polymarket is able to resolve wagers on the war.

The Institute is a US nonprofit research group that focuses on the analysis of modern-day conflicts.

Many view them as a trustworthy source of information concerning the front lines, alongside daily map updates.

404 Media reported that fake information, regarding an attack on a Ukrainian city, had been released on November 15, just before a resolution of a bet on Polymarket regarding the attack.

After the bettors had been paid, the changes to the map had been reversed. ISW confirmed that the map had been tampered with without authorization.

Later, a statement was issued where they spoke out against Polymarket’s use of the maps.