Regulus Partners Deems Flutter’s US TAM Forecast Overly Optimistic

Global strategic advisory business focussed on the sports and leisure sectors, Regulus Partners (RP), has expressed doubts regarding Flutter Entertainment’s forecast for the total addressable market (TAM) in the US sports betting and iGaming sectors, raising concerns over the company’s optimism.

Overly Optimistic Projections Could Hit Challenges
Last month, the operator with a market-leading position in the US and across the world projected that the North American TAM would reach around $70 billion by 2030. 

The figure would mark a significant 54% increase from its previous estimate of $41 billion. 

The US market alone was also forecasted to account for $63 billion, which is 1.5 times higher than Flutter’s prior estimate. 

However, a detailed analysis from RP has recently suggested that Flutter’s projections might be overly optimistic due to a series of challenges, including “structural limitations and potential regulatory pressures.” 

Instead, RP believes the US market is more likely to generate a TAM of $18.6 billion by 2030.

Despite “Optical Illusion,” Flutter’s Projection Remains Significant
The advisory firm with a data-driven approach pointed out that Flutter’s estimates rely heavily on inflationary growth. 

RP firm explained that provided annual inflation in the US is assumed at 2% through 2030, the real-term TAM could hit $56 billion. 

This includes roughly $7 billion from inflationary growth alone. Regulus noted, “The underlying increase in TAM is still 54%,” but highlighted that this projection may not account for real growth.

RP further criticized Flutter’s focus on gross gaming revenue (GGR), which they consider an inflator of the TAM due to the inclusion of player bonuses. 

“If we assume 40% bonuses for betting and 25% for gaming, we get to a real-terms revenue TAM of $36.7bn,” an RP statement said. 

In other words, the genuine revenue potential is lower once player bonuses are excluded. However, despite this “optical illusion,” Flutter’s projected growth is still significant.

US Market Growth, Under the Question Mark
Another important factor in Flutter’s forecast is the expansion of sports betting across even more US states. 

The operator of iconic global brands like FanDuel, Sportsbet, PokerStars, Paddy Power, Sisal, Betfair, and TVG, expects sports betting to reach 80% of the US population, or roughly 264 million people, by 2030. 

RP questioned Flutter’s bold assumption, with emphasis on states like Texas with a population of 30 million that is dealing with tax revenue drops because of sportsbook casinos in neighboring states, and California with a population of 40 million that could soon be given access to sports betting in light of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association’s push for a ballot measure in 2026 or 2028.

The company noted that at least one of the two states would have to be “in the figures to move the dial sufficiently.”

Flutter could also rely on a mix of a few smaller states including Missouri, where more than half of a recent poll respondents expressed support for sports betting, and Georgia, a state that is still struggling to legalize sports betting.  

iGaming Lobbying, “a Miserable Failure” 
RP also expressed skepticism regarding Flutter’s iGaming projections, citing the limited legislative progress in expanding online gaming.

“iGaming lobbying has been a miserable failure in most states so far,” Regulus commented, adding that without a political breakthrough, “67% of projected iGaming growth” could be at risk.

Regulus also flagged several structural challenges that could impede Flutter’s growth, including the fact that bettors in the US are still focused on domestic sports that lack the global appeal of soccer or tennis. 

Another argument used by RP against Flutter’s projections was the fact that the operator did not include horse racing when calculating TAM.

Ultimately, while RP deemed Flutter’s TAM forecast as attainable, it also concluded it is likely too ambitious while making sure to remark that while Flutter has proved them wrong before, its projections for 2030 are still far from certain.